A Framework to Monitor Changes in Transmission and Epidemiology of Emerging Pathogens: Lessons From Nipah Virus.

It is of uttermost importance that the global health community develops the surveillance capability to effectively monitor emerging zoonotic pathogens that constitute a major and evolving threat for human health. In this study, we propose a comprehensive framework to measure changes in (1) spillover risk, (2) interhuman transmission, and (3) morbidity/mortality associated with infections based on 6 epidemiological key indicators derived from routine surveillance. We demonstrate the indicators' value for the retrospective or real-time assessment of changes in transmission and epidemiological characteristics using data collected through a long-standing, systematic, hospital-based surveillance system for Nipah virus in Bangladesh. We show that although interhuman transmission and morbidity/mortality indicators were stable, the number and geographic extent of spillovers varied significantly over time. This combination of systematic surveillance and active tracking of transmission and epidemiological indicators should be applied to other high-risk emerging pathogens to prevent public health emergencies.

Changing Contact Patterns Over Disease Progression: Nipah Virus as a Case Study.

Contact patterns play a key role in disease transmission, and variation in contacts during the course of illness can influence transmission, particularly when accompanied by changes in host infectiousness. We used surveys among 1642 contacts of 94 Nipah virus case patients in Bangladesh to determine how contact patterns (physical and with bodily fluids) changed as disease progressed in severity. The number of contacts increased with severity and, for case patients who died, peaked on the day of death. Given transmission has only been observed among fatal cases of Nipah virus infection, our findings suggest that changes in contact patterns during illness contribute to risk of infection.

Transmission of Nipah Virus - 14 Years of Investigations in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Nipah virus is a highly virulent zoonotic pathogen that can be transmitted between humans. Understanding the dynamics of person-to-person transmission is key to designing effective interventions. METHODS: We used data from all Nipah virus cases identified during outbreak investigations in Bangladesh from April 2001 through April 2014 to investigate case-patient characteristics associated with onward transmission and factors associated with the risk of infection among patient contacts. RESULTS: Of 248 Nipah virus cases identified, 82 were caused by person-to-person transmission, corresponding to a reproduction number (i.e., the average number of secondary cases per case patient) of 0.33 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.19 to 0.59). The predicted reproduction number increased with the case patient's age and was highest among patients 45 years of age or older who had difficulty breathing (1.1; 95% CI, 0.4 to 3.2). Case patients who did not have difficulty breathing infected 0.05 times as many contacts (95% CI, 0.01 to 0.3) as other case patients did. Serologic testing of 1863 asymptomatic contacts revealed no infections. Spouses of case patients were more often infected (8 of 56 [14%]) than other close family members (7 of 547 [1.3%]) or other contacts (18 of 1996 [0.9%]). The risk of infection increased with increased duration of exposure of the contacts (adjusted odds ratio for exposure of >48 hours vs. ≤1 hour, 13; 95% CI, 2.6 to 62) and with exposure to body fluids (adjusted odds ratio, 4.3; 95% CI, 1.6 to 11). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing age and respiratory symptoms were indicators of infectivity of Nipah virus. Interventions to control person-to-person transmission should aim to reduce exposure to body fluids. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.).

Outbreak of Sudden Death with Acute Encephalitis Syndrome Among Children Associated with Exposure to Lychee Orchards in Northern Bangladesh, 2012.

Recurrent outbreaks of acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) among children in lychee growing areas in Asia highlight the need to better understand the etiology and the context. We conducted a mixed-methods study to identify risk factors for disease, and behaviors and practices around lychee cultivation in an AES outbreak community in northern Bangladesh in 2012. The outbreak affected 14 children; 13 died. The major symptoms included unconsciousness, convulsion, excessive sweating, and frothy discharge. The median time from illness onset to unconsciousness was 2.5 hours. The outbreak corresponded with lychee harvesting season. Multiple pesticides including some banned in Bangladesh were frequently used in the orchards. Visiting a lychee orchard within 24 hours before onset (age-adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 11.6 [1.02-109.8]) and 3 days (aOR = 7.2 [1.4-37.6]), and family members working in a lychee orchard (aOR = 7.2 [1.7-29.4]) and visiting any garden while pesticides were being applied (aOR = 4.9 [1.0-19.4]) in 3 days preceding illness onset were associated with illness in nearby village analysis. In neighborhood analysis, visiting an orchard that used pesticides (aOR = 8.4 [1.4-49.9]) within 3 days preceding illness onset was associated with illness. Eating lychees was not associated with illness in the case-control study. The outbreak was linked to lychee orchard exposures where agrochemicals were routinely used, but not to consumption of lychees. Lack of acute specimens was a major limitation. Future studies should target collection of environmental and food samples, acute specimens, and rigorous assessment of community use of pesticides to determine etiology.